World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 90-94 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0420e07a20600d108e5028c3cac91c91e6121be3c5f21ddc3ba46208aa0e3738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 24c | 2,590$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,496$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 25c | 1,542$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 75c | 992$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 25c | 710$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 75c | 710$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed No | 75c | 591$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 57c | 245$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Yes | 44c | 225.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 42c | 218.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…5cc5backed Yes | 32c | 155.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…31a4backed Yes | 38c | 109.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 22c | 91.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 76.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked No | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4551…14e3backed Yes | 35c | 59.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…e22cbacked Yes | 51c | 46.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…5162backed Yes | 29c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 32.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 79c | 24.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 90-94 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 75-79 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 80-84 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.