World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x965874ceb595f9621a0b3686ed0bb1f291a4691747afe85baa2f0e8ec43f1e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 62c | 4,673$2,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.35 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 12c | 3,370$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.9 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed No | 45c | 2,736$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 29c | 2,033$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 1c | 1,947$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 80c | 1,844$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 29c | 1,822$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,760$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 20c | 1,445$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 20c | 1,339$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 71c | 924$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 71c | 898$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 14c | 797.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 71c | 681$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 71c | 679$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 71c | 673$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 62c | 648.59$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.55 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…4b8ebacked Yes | 23c | 640.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed No | 57c | 627.91$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.65 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 80c | 621$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 50c | 616.52$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.73 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes | 59c | 479.94$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…bdfabacked Yes | 34c | 458.1$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 418.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed No | 80c | 319$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 49c | 312.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.93 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 71c | 306.26$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Yes | 66c | 302.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 56c | 269.93$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 72c | 182$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…ca57backed Yes | 75c | 178.89$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 45c | 177$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 76c | 149.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 74c | 148.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…2e9cbacked Yes | 19c | 132.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +165%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062f…aaeabacked Yes | 57c | 128.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 55c | 127.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…cac3backed Yes | 59c | 110.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…8f86backed Yes | 67c | 106.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed Yes | 28c | 92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 65c | 82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 40c | 78.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 77.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 75.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…e22cbacked Yes | 60c | 65.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 58.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848e…1076backed Yes | 50c | 54.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 53.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…c364backed Yes | 38c | 52.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…1215backed No | 77c | 52.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…dbd3backed Yes | 28c | 50.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd250…b0a4backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c0…b049backed Yes | 32c | 47.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 80c | 45.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf49…f632backed Yes | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…23b0backed Yes | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 61c | 34.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…5a09backed Yes | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 42c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 23.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27e…8a83backed Yes | 62c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 20.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 18.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 77c | 18.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 15.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 75-79 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 80-84 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 90-94 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.