AI · resolved market
Will "Ayatollah" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea3d945fcf0bc99b9475addd3e06cc59e3f8312074e0639db54d8f3f9252658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,817 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 47c | 831$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.57 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 488$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed Yes | 47c | 466$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 53c | 295$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 70c | 283.33$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 53c | 268$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 53c | 268$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 53c | 238$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 53c | 228$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 153.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1825…a678backed No | 73c | 119$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ayatollah" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "CEO" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "California" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Dario" or "Amodei" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Guard" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Rail" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Skynet" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Wild" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Woke" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.