Movies · resolved market
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb12863756fbb36fc1c13880d9446464f6300d521241686731a4056b6ded0166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,248 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 40c | 3,061$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.87 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 2,988$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.76 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 12c | 1,557$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 12c | 1,374$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 40c | 969.49$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.32 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 65c | 961$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…390dbacked Yes | 35c | 961$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 3c | 916.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 864.28$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 22c | 773$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 78c | 773$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 30c | 756.7$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.84 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 5c | 754.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.09 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 664.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 23c | 598.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 21c | 500$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 64c | 429.98$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed No | 27c | 415.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 70c | 390.23$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 43c | 262.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 44c | 241$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 33c | 213.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…3ffabacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 181.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 28c | 174.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked No | 28c | 170.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 51c | 152.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 70c | 143.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 32c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 26c | 132.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…9346backed Yes | 69c | 127$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ec…2c47backed Yes | 68c | 117.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 40c | 110.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…4bbfbacked Yes | 70c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 50c | 92.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa9…cda3backed No | 75c | 88.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 85.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 29c | 83.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…aaa2backed No | 14c | 81.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked Yes | 75c | 61.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…d141backed Yes | 49c | 61.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 34c | 59.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e1…a55abacked No | 79c | 58.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 45c | 58.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed No | 35c | 57.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked No | 53c | 52.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 51.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 26c | 51.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 50.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 41c | 50.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…6a6abacked Yes | 72c | 48.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 47.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 44.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 43c | 42.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…a3dcbacked No | 80c | 41.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 41.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…d577backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 70c | 38.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…1c95backed Yes | 71c | 35.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…bfe4backed Yes | 76c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 26.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217b…fa65backed Yes | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 67c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7c…9e02backed Yes | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Unicorn Academy: Secrets Revealed" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.