Movies · resolved market
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ec57f93f7a68caa7c51dd0cef27b842e6a4284a1bee75ccf454ea55d8f154d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,497 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 15c | 2,012$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf43…71aabacked Yes | 10c | 973.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…f4e1backed Yes | 3c | 824.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…9e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 797.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 6c | 699.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…0854backed Yes | 3c | 360.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 79c | 345.06$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 318.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 299.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…00d7backed Yes | 8c | 278.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 256.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 8c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…4500backed Yes | 11c | 181.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 74c | 178.97$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…5b99backed Yes | 18c | 108.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 77c | 46.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Unicorn Academy: Secrets Revealed" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.