Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple dip to $248 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf3b8f48636151c6c659a417656314485ce8e95552dca960ac983c043b46a20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,060$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 10c | 981.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 67c | 909$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 849.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 49c | 822$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.2 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 751.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 39c | 700$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 13c | 672$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 13c | 665.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 652.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 60c | 473.4$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 25c | 454$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 57c | 420.25$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 16c | 365.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…a869backed Yes | 26c | 312.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 7c | 295$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 14c | 280$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…be97backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 36c | 215.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 13c | 193.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 14c | 176.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 168.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 79c | 167.73$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…e78cbacked No | 44c | 145$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked No | 59c | 143.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf831…b7f1backed No | 44c | 143$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…779dbacked No | 44c | 142$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd037…4c55backed No | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…a0a7backed No | 44c | 138$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…b1b1backed No | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…1cd8backed No | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…1d11backed No | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…5199backed No | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…12cabacked No | 44c | 128$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…449bbacked No | 44c | 128$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…5a0abacked Yes | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…d572backed Yes | 56c | 114$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…199cbacked Yes | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…042cbacked Yes | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…1099backed Yes | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…3495backed Yes | 56c | 111$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…d3e8backed Yes | 56c | 111$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…231abacked Yes | 56c | 108$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd633…c37dbacked Yes | 56c | 106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…eb5dbacked Yes | 56c | 106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…3b0dbacked Yes | 56c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…000fbacked Yes | 56c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ec…f53fbacked Yes | 56c | 102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…ed83backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe89d…57e4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…fb93backed Yes | 56c | 98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…126fbacked No | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf32…5159backed Yes | 53c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a7…e91ebacked Yes | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked Yes | 44c | 39.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…d0e9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7b…b573backed No | 79c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple dip to $248 in February?this page
- Will Apple dip to $208 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $220 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $232 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $240 in February?No won
- Will Apple reach $264 in February?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $272 in February?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $284 in February?No won
- Will Apple reach $300 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.