Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple reach $272 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a16c04d74f489f01c50d017d292379214fa8664e7cdc1327f21d56b94e7cf18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3db…7b1ebacked No | 1c | 3,584$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 6c | 355.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…20a3backed Yes | 45c | 143$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5d…8895backed Yes | 45c | 143$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…2a74backed Yes | 45c | 142$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35d…0fddbacked Yes | 45c | 137$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc222…016bbacked Yes | 45c | 135$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…7472backed Yes | 45c | 134$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…0a20backed Yes | 45c | 131$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…df29backed Yes | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2c…53d9backed Yes | 45c | 126$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…502ebacked Yes | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…2c06backed Yes | 45c | 124$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…243dbacked Yes | 45c | 124$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…bc78backed Yes | 45c | 124$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…8d58backed Yes | 45c | 122$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…07b2backed No | 55c | 118$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…9510backed No | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b0…2fa9backed No | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…9892backed No | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1973…931ebacked No | 55c | 113$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c4…06cdbacked No | 55c | 112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9940backed No | 55c | 111$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…af79backed No | 55c | 109$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…a8d0backed No | 55c | 109$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…5b3dbacked No | 55c | 108$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…570fbacked No | 55c | 107$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3861…a99fbacked No | 55c | 106$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b4…6d8abacked No | 55c | 104$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…98c1backed No | 55c | 103$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bc…7f33backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7840backed No | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 66c | 96.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d3…a2d6backed No | 55c | 93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 70c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple reach $272 in February?this page
- Will Apple dip to $208 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $220 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $232 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $240 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $248 in February?No won
- Will Apple reach $264 in February?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $284 in February?No won
- Will Apple reach $300 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.