Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple reach $284 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f51cbd55982f0e6bdb69c0612dc85bb2d11783a4663b31ac0dd80bb2386867a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,586$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.72 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 11c | 3,440$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,750$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,484$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked Yes | 55c | 1,736$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 59c | 1,027$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 975.12$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 661.06$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.19 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 46c | 522.1$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.36 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 47c | 492.32$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.93 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 40c | 487.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.87 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…384ebacked Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…447abacked Yes | 34c | 344.04$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 23c | 331.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…a869backed Yes | 9c | 304.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 287.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 7c | 280$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b3…9e8abacked Yes | 41c | 205$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…220ebacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 196.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…c7a6backed Yes | 41c | 192$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…653fbacked Yes | 41c | 191$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…fa9abacked Yes | 41c | 188$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61df…cc1fbacked Yes | 41c | 185$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 174.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 170.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 53c | 153.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 147.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…4d91backed Yes | 41c | 144$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…3aa6backed Yes | 41c | 133$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…8befbacked No | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…d976backed No | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…82d5backed No | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…0e86backed No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…8314backed No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…e4a9backed No | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…1b80backed No | 59c | 104$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…779ebacked No | 59c | 104$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 48c | 103.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea1…3028backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…6580backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…ecd9backed No | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd285…5c77backed No | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…dd86backed No | 59c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…77fabacked No | 59c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…fde1backed No | 59c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked No | 77c | 88.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 80c | 63.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 55.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 59c | 55.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 42c | 51.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 60c | 50.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 47c | 49.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…1e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 43c | 34.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…16b9backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 42c | 29.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 47c | 25.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 59c | 23.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple reach $284 in February?this page
- Will Apple dip to $208 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $220 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $232 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $240 in February?No won
- Will Apple dip to $248 in February?No won
- Will Apple reach $264 in February?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $272 in February?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $300 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.