Poker · resolved market
Will Mariano win at Hustler Casino on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc295f53e0bebb81ad8239ee27835934f0c2b346a3b85c0903df7aa8aebb82193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,566 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c0eebacked No | 50c | 200.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…33bebacked No | 33c | 177$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…5a80backed Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 43c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fe…f532backed Yes | 74c | 76.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked No | 45c | 66.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Yes | 61c | 65.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 53c | 52.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 39.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 40c | 29.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.