MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41cb8cb15436397f90e744dfca3e67b4b7b545f10f44d7a675d4d7590e7163be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 6,471$3,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 3,299$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 3,115$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 35c | 2,295$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 2,053$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 36c | 1,500$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.85 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 1,419$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 65c | 967.72$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.7 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 68c | 809$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.49 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 63c | 665.9$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.38 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 36c | 371.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 69c | 298.47$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.23 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 70c | 272.28$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 61c | 250.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 65c | 231.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 61c | 157.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Over | 73c | 150.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 43c | 85.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 29c | 71.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 65c | 65.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 68c | 46.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 63c | 40.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 34c | 36.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 69c | 29.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Under | 58c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 63c | 23.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 65c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.