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Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,235
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,235 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes28c4,760$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5110…8f40backed Yes31c1,293$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No62c973.65$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.0422834.6%79 W · 149 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57af…bab5backed Yes42c911.19$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No67c776.44$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9111935.3%42 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No74c748$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.083542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes23c366.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.711637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes35c357$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0315747.8%75 W · 82 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x097b…19c1backed Yes38c353.66$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No66c324.14$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.51944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No73c319.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.81485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes29c308.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.219129.7%27 W · 64 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No70c299.61$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.441650%8 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fa…866dbacked Yes27c268.95$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes46c264$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No73c255.49$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.326639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c248.11$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.414759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee94…404dbacked No70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5420332%65 W · 138 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes29c199.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.996927.5%19 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed No74c178.91$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No66c160$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.83467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x024e…8fa1backed Yes32c156$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c144$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.813265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes31c141.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9823430.3%71 W · 163 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c133.55$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.74358.1%25 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c132$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.323974.4%29 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c130.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4611334.5%39 W · 74 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes25c124.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+108.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No71c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.461376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No62c117.54$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9731418.5%58 W · 256 L-30.3wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.94065%26 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No71c95.14$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc1…6113backed Yes32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f0…78babacked Yes30c91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No70c87.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.253447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No63c84.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.377332.9%24 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No73c70$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2421041.9%88 W · 122 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes28c69.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.441050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No72c52.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.552941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142560%15 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes36c49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes36c49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60f1…466abacked Yes38c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No63c46.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.345633.9%19 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef0…e28ebacked No71c45.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Yes28c44.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b30…100fbacked No63c41.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef9…8f58backed Yes31c40.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3a…cdddbacked No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2d…8147backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7503…ece8backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc09b…38e2backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No63c37.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes38c37.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.132040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes47c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.411353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes43c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf389…c39ebacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.84967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c29.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No74c27.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.032250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5a…aa7abacked No63c26.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No64c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.562751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No70c20.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.083036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86ff…1d98backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ee…bdffbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf258…76c5backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-76.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x257b…d288backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1583…bddebacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0479…8177backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5b…f580backed Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0bd4…582bbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59cc…2963backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8478…d8a1backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9c…aa50backed No73c17.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed No68c16.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No70c16.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.681957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.