Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb1d0f920ebdd0c03d8245f20e588cf7bfee42d571ad96fb90153994383f2ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 36c | 1,083$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.54 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 52c | 575.8$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 67c | 487.87$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes | 73c | 400$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 59c | 395.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.73 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 394$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 43c | 330$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 324.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 320.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 263.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 52c | 234.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 56c | 219.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 202.26$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 60c | 197.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 45c | 183.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345f…a050backed Yes | 62c | 149.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 70c | 134.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 116.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed Yes | 56c | 99.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 87.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee94…404dbacked Yes | 64c | 77.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 60c | 77.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 64c | 73.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0f…30e3backed Yes | 70c | 63.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 68c | 60.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 56.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 55c | 47.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 51c | 43.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 54c | 42.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 36c | 36.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 31c | 35.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d32…0457backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 31.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 314 | 18.5%58 W · 256 L | -30.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 61c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…763cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…a53bbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…fa1dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 59c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 63c | 16.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?this page
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% in July?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in July?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% or more in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.