Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a01d46edc9c534b4509d7139c51ea75426712381024626a142a0c902d32e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 11c | 379.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 256.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 227$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 208.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 303 | 13.9%42 W · 261 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 138.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 70.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 70c | 37.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…11b3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in July?this page
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% in July?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?Yes won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% or more in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.