MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a3ee6fcdcda87ed72b2199aaaacd2e57214106401d8d6fa50fd2487668900e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 8,755$5,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,414.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 6,140$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 2,045$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.72 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 1,706$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.28 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 521$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 204$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 148.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 132.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 119.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 66.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 63.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 57.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 48.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 46.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 42.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed St. Louis Cardinals | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.