MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90c3994a42af91bd53c4e7a3c91ff0f6a8c10c8989474648afb15cbea8055b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 17,054$12,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,822.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 13c | 13,696$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 72c | 6,659$4,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 13c | 6,083$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 13c | 3,747$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.61 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 11c | 3,496$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 13c | 1,891$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 13c | 1,833$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.38 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 13c | 1,635$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 11c | 964.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d86…537abacked Under | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Over | 20c | 360.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 58c | 317.9$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 10c | 277$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 14c | 257.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 229.18$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 49c | 228.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 10c | 214$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 13c | 148.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 10c | 141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 65c | 140.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 134.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 14c | 123.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 113.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Under | 74c | 99.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 51c | 96.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 34c | 93.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 81.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 60c | 74.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 69.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 66c | 52.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 50c | 51.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 65c | 36.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 30.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 75c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.