MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff09acadb4dce77910e670fc2cb8d9e511f1308e3a617570e26b903c212a22fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 3,186$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 45c | 1,001$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.98 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 55c | 915.35$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.91 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…a9e0backed Under | 62c | 879.82$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 781.54$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.69 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 756$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 403$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 28c | 359.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 56c | 346.92$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 34c | 223$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 60c | 188.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 168.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 165.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 159.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 44c | 128.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 44c | 114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 113$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 95.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 88.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 83.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 46c | 75.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 68.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 47c | 58.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 57.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 56c | 50.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Under | 51c | 47.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 55c | 44.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 39.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Under | 54c | 37.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 48c | 37.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 55c | 37.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…c8fabacked Under | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Under | 53c | 32.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Over | 46c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 18.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.