MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4138ae8c5054dc3c0812b28460ebb39b55d38fee2a082b752d903ee7f5b43084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 69c | 25,262$17,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,831.4 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 36c | 4,608$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 33c | 4,581$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 40c | 2,920$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 1,587$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.58 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Under | 71c | 1,292$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 65c | 1,095$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.22 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 587.98$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 30c | 437.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 427.69$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.97 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 34c | 272.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…e285backed Under | 64c | 218.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 66c | 195.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 29c | 191.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 173.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 57c | 168.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 31c | 164.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 31c | 164.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 31c | 145.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 40c | 144.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 36c | 134.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 40c | 123.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 35c | 108.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 35c | 68.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Over | 23c | 67.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 67.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 36c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 40c | 50.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 66c | 45.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…ff61backed Under | 40c | 38.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 52c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 39c | 31.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 38c | 30.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 51c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 27.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 66c | 18.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.