MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08071174556991887cce368add186f918d17023f6f288ea469a10e8c4277d974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 2,655$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 5c | 855.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 57c | 833.51$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 16c | 789.31$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 45c | 756.93$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 467$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 45c | 460$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 20c | 239.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Under | 66c | 222.14$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 18c | 178.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 20c | 120.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Over | 67c | 109.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Over | 46c | 108.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 53c | 102.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 20c | 101.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 87.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 16c | 77.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 20c | 73.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 62c | 46.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 33c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.