WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4df2a00c0a6dd00354139dea3ad50c20314fe7d31d5dcd422df4945f3093de0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 3,156$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.44 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Connecticut Sun | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 62c | 1,856$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.6 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Golden State Valkyries | 43c | 1,387$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.87 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Golden State Valkyries | 43c | 1,059$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.49 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 834.69$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.84 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 741.4$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.44 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Golden State Valkyries | 63c | 666$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun | 58c | 555$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.9 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Connecticut Sun | 64c | 391.02$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…2e6bbacked Connecticut Sun | 44c | 330.27$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 213.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 196$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 42c | 193.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Golden State Valkyries | 35c | 175.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Connecticut Sun | 57c | 165.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Connecticut Sun | 46c | 154$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Golden State Valkyries | 65c | 152.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Connecticut Sun | 23c | 133$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 123.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Golden State Valkyries | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 45c | 107.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Connecticut Sun | 59c | 106.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 38c | 94.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 86.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 78.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Golden State Valkyries | 36c | 74.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Connecticut Sun | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 54.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Connecticut Sun | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Connecticut Sun | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Connecticut Sun | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Connecticut Sun | 76c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 35.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 35.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 35.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Connecticut Sun | 79c | 31.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Connecticut Sun | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 20.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Connecticut Sun | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5)this page
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut SunGolden State Valkyries won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 153.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.