WNBA · resolved market
Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 154.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb523cdb2c2f3e2128264f030d661419df9778bc819152b35970e641ee6d85b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 101,357$49,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,507.23 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 87,208$44,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,872.15 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Over | 49c | 30,000$14,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,698.39 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 8,178$4,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,068.72 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 53c | 7,500$3,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534.4 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 51c | 5,886$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,884.14 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 5,699$2,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.34 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…2061backed Under | 52c | 5,376$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 4,886$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393.93 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 51c | 4,700$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.78 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 4,150$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.97 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Under | 53c | 3,369$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.12 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 2,511$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.97 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 2,489$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.21 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Over | 46c | 2,170$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.2 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 53c | 1,873$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.69 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 1,832$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.02 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 51c | 1,669$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.69 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 1,318$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.82 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…9e59backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 727$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.23 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 51c | 492.1$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.51 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 49c | 485.88$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 47c | 463.2$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.71 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 3c | 350.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 48c | 349.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.34 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 347.14$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 52c | 323$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 314.48$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 52c | 297.93$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 48c | 213.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Over | 47c | 157.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 50c | 135.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 135.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Over | 46c | 130.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Over | 47c | 110.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 49c | 105.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…db42backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 90.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 47c | 74.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 72.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 48c | 69.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 68.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Over | 52c | 67.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 63.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 52c | 58.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…ad0fbacked Over | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 52c | 41.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Over | 47c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 51c | 26.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…2ea0backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 48c | 22.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 51c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 53c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Over | 53c | 21.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 154.5this page
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut SunGolden State Valkyries won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 153.5Under won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.