WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116d8a1aa280b4548a4979e50fae3d9627c47e56ad3f116f82a9c872ca4dbe4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 312.27$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 254.08$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 132.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 68.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 52.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 52.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed Connecticut Sun | 58c | 51.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 47.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 44.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c3…6732backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 34.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 34.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 32.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Golden State Valkyries | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)this page
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut SunGolden State Valkyries won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 153.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.