TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,026 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes39c20,641$8,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,020.6922433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes32c12,818$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,099.682236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No49c12,654$6,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,456.141163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick36cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe801…6a86backed Yes49c11,301$5,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,484.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes41c9,844$4,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,076.182334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed No56c7,929$4,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.641553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+208.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No56c6,721$3,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.293661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+182.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c6,024$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.21369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes39c4,975$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.253426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes1c4,882$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c4,312$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.4715148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No60c2,284$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.244360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c2,180$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.694568.9%31 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No53c2,129$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.891566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c2,079$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.051872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5509…7212backed Yes47c2,060$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes50c1,841$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9238528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c1,749$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.8319931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0458…92e9backed Yes51c1,621$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No68c1,570$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.852272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa156…cf02backed Yes45c1,505$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes42c1,180$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.97030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes51c1,100$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No55c1,086$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.391163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…bb2abacked Yes47c1,061$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes47c913.28$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes45c899.97$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes52c882.24$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No48c821.28$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.372142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No49c793.67$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.213450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92de…30b4backed No51c759.55$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No58c697.78$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.492161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No49c697.44$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.9111039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked No49c691$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.34977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c689$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.812965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No70c624.8$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.757122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes50c586.54$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes36c569.34$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.931723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes50c555.68$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.873655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No60c549.98$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No53c539.52$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes57c514.3$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c487$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.963873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Yes48c479.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c470.36$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.12972.4%21 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No55c465.2$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.152766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78c2…22cfbacked Yes43c460.96$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed No55c457.85$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No54c452.16$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.43666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed No48c436.31$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+93.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No51c435.84$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.543066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No59c428.38$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.092466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb87…d3a5backed Yes50c403.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked No49c400$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.43138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacbc…c1c2backed Yes51c400$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b57…72ecbacked Yes50c381.89$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+218%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No49c370.67$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.771266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c363.53$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.233857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No53c359.37$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.332634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c318.53$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.263663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No51c310.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.191080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No58c310$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.031553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No54c304.03$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.912060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked No74c300$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.11631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes66c289$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.66933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No53c285$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.991668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda4c…fffdbacked Yes55c284.26$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c276.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4629913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b86…bd28backed Yes49c265.31$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes42c260.56$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+49.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes38c246.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.391020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No52c245$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bdb…bb58backed Yes44c227.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No63c221.67$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.78966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed No50c220$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+74.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No48c215$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bbd…df1fbacked No55c206.43$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes43c206.17$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.72839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No46c200$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa995…1be0backed Yes51c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No57c200$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+41.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No49c188.77$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.661546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+57.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No50c185.58$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.891266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+75.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No49c185$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No52c185$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No51c183.34$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.41844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No56c181.58$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.491080%8 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+83.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes7c180.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.331612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-83.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe48f…4ae5backed Yes48c179.33$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No40c158.79$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.161050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9800…9a33backed No55c156.21$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd542…08abbacked Yes48c155.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.021612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-81.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d01…6ca9backed No69c148.7$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.51850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes16c147.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.755330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8069…e81dbacked Yes54c141.2$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+554.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed No56c134.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No44c131.51$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf9…3ce1backed Yes47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.