Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99231ff429ed86c5cb642c8db64892e3cb76037c35773b8deda90dc874abc0ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 3c | 11,165$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,853.81 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 71c | 8,333$5,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.53 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked No | 0c | 7,056$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,810$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,736.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | +511.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 2c | 6,250$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150.76 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 3c | 4,836$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,698.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 2c | 3,816$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,745.19 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +889.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c149backed Yes | 2c | 2,439$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.86 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 10c | 2,107$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 2c | 2,081$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…d74fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,761$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +1,060.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…d58dbacked No | 1c | 1,674$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…0fc3backed No | 1c | 1,456$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…72ecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,375$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +218%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 1c | 1,144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 1c | 1,114$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.03 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb4…0464backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 2c | 894$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.65 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…effebacked Yes | 2c | 882.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 43c | 801.71$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 789$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.37 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 38c | 657$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 654.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +2,079.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 632.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.49 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fa…ad3cbacked Yes | 39c | 600$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…a183backed Yes | 2c | 491.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +1,305.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 432.55$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…a783backed Yes | 5c | 411.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +585.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 7c | 373.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.48 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 339.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…e81dbacked Yes | 5c | 203.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +554.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 176.88$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 150.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 7c | 146.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,293.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 51c | 130$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 116.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 16c | 87.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 87.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed No | 21c | 68.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 36.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 74c | 24.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…e371backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?this page
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.5% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.