TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$144,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x063e…48d3backed Yes4c12,721$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c10,119$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7711334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes6c7,954$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes6c7,729$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9842…132bbacked Yes4c7,388$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes6c6,334$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes7c3,200$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.221631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2db…84eabacked Yes37c2,990$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes22c2,847$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.633426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,232$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4929913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…0179backed Yes3c2,134$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes8c1,994$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.583661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+182.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked Yes5c1,986$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No65c1,871$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.1323330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd576…b8f4backed Yes4c1,681$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab80…af18backed Yes5c1,357$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.54933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes12c1,147$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.433138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes25c1,146$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.852236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x404f…561dbacked Yes4c1,126$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd46…4c7dbacked Yes4c1,108$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes4c1,084$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c1,056$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.46156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick1cpaid+511.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes3c999.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+359.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b57…72ecbacked Yes13c943.59$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+218%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed No70c834.37$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.441553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+208.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c784.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.964413.6%6 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+101.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ca…2c14backed Yes3c757.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-66.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ebe…892dbacked Yes3c749.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes5c736.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.241612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-83.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c631.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.96303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes6c590.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.911216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes13c578.5$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.322142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes3c549.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+2,079.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7168…e422backed Yes4c540$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd04f…5ababacked Yes5c536.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd987…20b6backed Yes4c520.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…a783backed Yes8c513.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+585.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c499.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.556139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d01…6ca9backed Yes7c485.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.22850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c441.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24498.2%4 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc1…6113backed Yes6c357.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked Yes5c340$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2,039.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes5c299.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes6c284$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8533…7c76backed Yes11c281.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6928…d7afbacked Yes4c276.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1170%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed Yes5c258.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes5c249.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.491546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+57.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes42c244.91$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a1…38c1backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe055…8df9backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26605%3 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes9c194.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdae5…6fc8backed Yes11c185$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c179.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.510836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes17c153.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7719931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…83fcbacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes20c145.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.352560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes8c140$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes14c138.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3799…6a31backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x559e…fa1dbacked Yes13c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…9a7dbacked Yes16c94.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No75c86$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7163…f867backed No66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c64.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9630918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe867…95b5backed No66c63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe01a…cd84backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes37c58.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.757030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c57.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4514024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No77c56.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No67c54.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes38c42.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.475330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No76c40.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.532176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.551723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No80c27.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.691457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No64c22.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…e371backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick73cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.