MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8629444f6c3222109e5e57b40470168b798a64528a0867050fc88af6067e116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 34c | 5,358$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.33 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 3,588$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.72 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 62c | 1,496$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 38c | 1,342$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.16 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 63c | 945.07$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.93 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 478.93$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.84 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 35c | 258.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.23 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 33c | 249.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.49 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 40c | 195.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 36c | 171.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 152.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 36c | 146.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 34c | 122$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 113.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 40c | 97.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 1,044 | 48.9%511 W · 533 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…b953backed Under | 37c | 92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 55c | 71.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 57c | 70.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 854 | 49.3%421 W · 433 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 40c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 37c | 66.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 36c | 58.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Over | 42c | 51.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 48.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 40c | 46.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 36c | 44.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 41c | 41.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 39.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 41c | 37.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Over | 44c | 34.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 55c | 32.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 44c | 30.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Over | 43c | 25.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 41c | 25.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 24.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,191 | 40%876 W · 1,315 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Under | 78c | 16.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-5.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-6.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-7.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.