TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$263,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$271,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Texas Rangers0c61,983$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0714724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Texas Rangers0c47,610$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6197944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Texas Rangers21c22,500$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,72548952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Houston Astros49c15,871$7,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,094.431,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers52c12,000$6,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2605,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers51c9,681$4,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,937.474,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Texas Rangers0c9,080$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.246523.1%15 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Texas Rangers0c5,012$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.398762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Texas Rangers52c4,837$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.0829147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Houston Astros49c4,698$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.936844.1%30 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Houston Astros73c4,387$3,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.5895045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Houston Astros48c4,199$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.4619950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Texas Rangers51c4,042$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.4232152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Houston Astros47c3,387$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.5251545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Texas Rangers29c3,275$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.3879442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers51c2,506$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.813,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3f…6deebacked Houston Astros48c2,053$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.762740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Texas Rangers53c1,985$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.2289153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Texas Rangers52c1,930$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.62,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Texas Rangers33c1,839$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.321,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Texas Rangers32c1,808$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.41,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Texas Rangers1c1,800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Texas Rangers38c1,610$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.8371850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers10c1,581$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.38,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Houston Astros48c1,562$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.2455653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers5c1,542$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.738,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Texas Rangers40c1,434$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.591,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Houston Astros49c1,224$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.499949.5%49 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros76c896.85$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Texas Rangers4c864.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.522,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Houston Astros48c779.87$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.4329752.5%156 W · 141 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Texas Rangers52c769$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.881,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd69a…d57fbacked Houston Astros55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3152365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros64c699.99$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed Texas Rangers2c657.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Houston Astros48c619.75$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8356253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Houston Astros48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31232850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Texas Rangers33c599.03$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.041,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ba…19b8backed Texas Rangers52c538.54$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Texas Rangers35c537.91$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19051849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Texas Rangers35c500$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.775,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Houston Astros48c499.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Texas Rangers53c471.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25026245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Texas Rangers52c452.42$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.2661450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers33c441.18$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.656,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Texas Rangers33c430.83$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.997050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers33c414.88$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.914,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23e…e4a3backed Houston Astros49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1611750.4%59 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers33c377.45$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.943,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x835b…118fbacked Texas Rangers27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006538.5%25 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Houston Astros67c360$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.882636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Texas Rangers10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510625.5%27 W · 79 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros79c320$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.564,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Houston Astros65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6981257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Houston Astros48c299.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15620848.6%101 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Texas Rangers33c291.88$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3273949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Texas Rangers13c267.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.292046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers30c258.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.938,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5dbe…ea98backed Houston Astros67c239.64$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.088968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14fb…4ecdbacked Texas Rangers35c231.09$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.881040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c89…57b7backed Houston Astros69c211.44$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8313076.2%99 W · 31 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a21…4aa9backed Houston Astros48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3314452.8%76 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa9be…08bebacked Houston Astros49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.087749.4%38 W · 39 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Houston Astros64c202.95$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5243459%256 W · 178 L+19.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Texas Rangers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10061352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Houston Astros48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10439846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Houston Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers33c196.78$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.581,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Texas Rangers53c193$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.291,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Texas Rangers53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros71c188.02$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Houston Astros47c186.91$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.061,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Houston Astros67c180$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.49662.5%60 W · 36 L+11.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Texas Rangers35c171.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros47c161.62$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.851,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros77c153$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.681,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Houston Astros48c151.78$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9387750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros67c142.58$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x967f…a5d9backed Houston Astros67c128.03$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2514372.7%104 W · 39 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9ae…2103backed Houston Astros48c126.77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.923050%15 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Houston Astros67c125$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2552053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff68…8379backed Texas Rangers12c122.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526940.5%109 W · 160 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd72d…0dbbbacked Houston Astros67c119.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.411855.9%66 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Houston Astros47c106.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.671,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Houston Astros49c105$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5521449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Texas Rangers52c101.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.591656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Texas Rangers53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5344949.2%221 W · 228 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Houston Astros50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5014457.6%83 W · 61 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff1…4ec0backed Houston Astros67c99.57$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8612271.3%87 W · 35 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros49c93.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Houston Astros47c90$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.71,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Houston Astros48c89.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4485949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Houston Astros48c89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2853950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Houston Astros75c85$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251,10079.6%876 W · 224 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Texas Rangers33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7547743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Houston Astros67c74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4237868.8%260 W · 118 L+25.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros68c74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.686,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Texas Rangers33c72.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.941,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.