MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea36303ae0a6cebe931d0f2dff0324f12b59d1a557481531b9d0a751d6a924c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 1,631$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.47 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 53c | 1,444$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.82 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 46c | 1,020$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.2 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,002$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 980.23$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.51 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 51c | 972.71$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.63 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 644.18$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 47c | 551.21$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.07 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 54c | 497.91$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 493.08$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 439$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 403.55$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 55c | 327.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 320.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 309.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 249.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 215.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 47c | 203.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 200.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 50c | 199.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 182.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Under | 33c | 135.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 38c | 114$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 107.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 27c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 68.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 50c | 63.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 58c | 43.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 27c | 39.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…c8fabacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Over | 50c | 38.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 51c | 21.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 51c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-5.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-6.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-7.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.