Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb0406fd238d8551ff86fd74ff95568e19fbadc8c516c37fe1b19d7eac9e4c6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 67c | 5,466$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 40c | 5,246$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.29 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Up | 59c | 4,582$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 41c | 2,544$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.21 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Down | 43c | 1,915$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.14 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Up | 61c | 1,787$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…1b1ebacked Down | 40c | 1,650$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 26c | 1,300$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.85 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Up | 76c | 643.38$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f09…bc38backed Up | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +230.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…fc36backed Up | 58c | 499.86$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.94 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 8c | 493.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…4eb0backed Up | 61c | 421.36$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…0f2cbacked Up | 58c | 417.48$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked Down | 15c | 411.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…0cdfbacked Down | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Up | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Up | 73c | 291.17$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 10c | 270.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Down | 21c | 258.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked Up | 67c | 237.77$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Up | 60c | 230$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…3a6cbacked Down | 42c | 220.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…7a3abacked Up | 70c | 210$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6e…15cfbacked Down | 38c | 210$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…8172backed Up | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Up | 71c | 199.92$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 20c | 195.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Up | 67c | 163.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Up | 61c | 158.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Down | 34c | 158.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Up | 63c | 154.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Down | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…e6d9backed Down | 40c | 119$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Up | 74c | 108.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…6f69backed Up | 60c | 102.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…a294backed Up | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…e758backed Up | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed Up | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…5ce6backed Up | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Down | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Up | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Down | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…8858backed Up | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…516abacked Up | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…1540backed Down | 41c | 99.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed Down | 43c | 78.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 62c | 77.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…83a5backed Up | 63c | 77.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…d993backed Up | 61c | 64.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…8c95backed Up | 79c | 63.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0455…79b8backed Down | 24c | 51.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Up | 51c | 47.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…aa97backed Down | 32c | 39.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…bfa5backed Down | 36c | 37.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Down | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…0a1bbacked Down | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…c9bfbacked Up | 61c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Up | 68c | 25.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Up | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…a340backed Up | 75c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.