Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d0287970a53c0091b59014f792a3b9cb9a26c142ace9838defbdca1271222ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 1,071$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.29 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 67c | 750.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 711.36$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 77c | 611.63$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.11 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 524.12$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 515.69$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 43c | 409.06$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.14 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 382.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 25c | 374.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 80c | 349.87$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.86 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 262.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 257.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 213.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 194.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 29c | 179.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 170$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 166.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 19c | 156.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 77c | 155.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 153.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 153$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 76c | 152.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 38c | 139.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 19c | 134.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 67c | 126.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 124.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 121$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 120.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 35c | 112.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 11c | 111.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 103.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 101.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…69ccbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 71c | 98.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 18c | 98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 97.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 96.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 96.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbb…54e9backed Yes | 45c | 93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 92.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 90.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 89.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 89.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 48c | 87.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 86.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 60c | 82.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 59c | 77.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 68c | 76.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 31c | 75.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 73.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 71.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 63c | 67.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 23c | 67.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 65.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 62.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 16c | 60.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 59.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 58.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 35c | 58.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 56.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 52.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 30c | 52.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 51.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 22c | 49.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 29c | 49.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 42c | 47.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 26c | 45.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 45.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 43.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 41.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 39.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 79c | 39.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 38.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 65c | 30.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8d…f2e0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 79c | 27.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 57c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 74c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 26.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.