Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e2ef4c055f80e2b397d8d6dcbfb696fbcea9fcd441bbe67e2d3a9ff10f7370c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 1,553$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.46 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 79c | 1,000$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…bc8abacked Yes | 36c | 835.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 64c | 757.34$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 552.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 16c | 377.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 21c | 284$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 269.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 222.39$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 11c | 222.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 215$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 20c | 214.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 29c | 209.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 200.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 163$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 7c | 154.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 27c | 147.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 10c | 132.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 76c | 131.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 127.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 120.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 95.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 94.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 18c | 88.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 82.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 18c | 65.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 59.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 66c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 20c | 51.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 27.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 64c | 25.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 23.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 71c | 22.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 22.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.