Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42ddd02d882bc2928076133f4b06e06a88a98610c1d949174c748ee57003f0a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 2,481$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 786.93$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 80c | 517.27$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 506.88$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 21c | 471.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 408.44$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 41c | 407.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 406.67$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 328.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 41c | 323.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 321.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 75c | 302.34$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 284.91$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 280.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…ace6backed Yes | 36c | 278.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 235$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 231.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 221.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 60c | 202.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 199.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 197.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 185$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 172$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 164.76$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 13c | 144.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 73c | 137.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 8c | 132.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 59c | 126.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 30c | 123.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 118.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 117.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 108.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 104.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 98.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 95.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 93.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 90.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 20c | 77.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 29c | 76.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 34c | 73.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 34c | 73.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 72.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 67.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 37c | 66.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 64.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 58.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 58.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 57.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 27c | 56.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 55.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…fab9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 49.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 46.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 63c | 44.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 31c | 41.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 76c | 39.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 31c | 37.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 31c | 33.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 60c | 32.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 31.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 38c | 30.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 69c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 28.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 26.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 61c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…9d40backed No | 73c | 21.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.