Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a27cd9c9a8367281b239b37dd366ea318270e19a13fc7e92d3b62b9d7f4c29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,673$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 12c | 780.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 482.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 13c | 451.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 17c | 450.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 14c | 312.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 282.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 11c | 262.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 255.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes | 19c | 238.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 209.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 14c | 206.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 192$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 11c | 178.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 14c | 171.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 8c | 170$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 160.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…898ebacked Yes | 10c | 159.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 14c | 147$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 146.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 8c | 129.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…6ddfbacked Yes | 14c | 119.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 21c | 118.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 116.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 112.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 12c | 109.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 15c | 109.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 14c | 107.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 106.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 103.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 12c | 100.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…560bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 17c | 98.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 19c | 96.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 15c | 87.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 22c | 80.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…452fbacked Yes | 14c | 74.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 16c | 71.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 15c | 70.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…3e47backed Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…1a6cbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2920backed No | 80c | 31.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…ab06backed No | 79c | 24.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…75aebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.