Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9712be8e09fef215b6e0ef88104a6114c65aa52a2bca3802763c3c0e2f21b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 3c | 2,974$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…4008backed Yes | 6c | 655.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 14c | 399.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Yes | 27c | 302.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 11c | 205.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 75c | 158.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 33c | 150.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 149.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 128.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked No | 71c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 113.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 112.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 79c | 97.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 93.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 70c | 86.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 80.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 79.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed No | 68c | 62.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 59.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 31c | 46.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 45.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 68c | 43.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 41.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 38.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 38.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 30c | 37.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…ac4abacked Yes | 34c | 30.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 68c | 29.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 24.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 75c | 16.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 68c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.