Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1699235e1f7cef71db23ebfa76a2320053c926d6c3596dd2528f99fc31b8963d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 14c | 696.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 572.08$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 343.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Yes | 35c | 304.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 298.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 27c | 295.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 13c | 269.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 65c | 258.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 210.49$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 33c | 210$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 79c | 205.41$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 189.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 158.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 155$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 153.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 30c | 150.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 147.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 128.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 110.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 110.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 29c | 110.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 102.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 96.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 90.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 87.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 29c | 84.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 82.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 35c | 81.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 81.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 77.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 77.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 75.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 19c | 74.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 73.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 70.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 67.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 59.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked Yes | 26c | 57.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 56.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 52.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 39c | 48.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 38c | 45.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 42.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 66c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 32c | 38.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 34.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 34.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 33.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…18fcbacked Yes | 35c | 33.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 76c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 29.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 38c | 28.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed No | 60c | 28.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 27.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 26.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…f076backed No | 70c | 23.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 70c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 15.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 15.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…6ff7backed No | 74c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.