Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03729808e7eb0126c0353f782fea08aeb95044450385849ffeeadae325e3de3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 1c | 5,086$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 1c | 2,408$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 78c | 1,270$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.34 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…eb97backed Yes | 2c | 942.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 25c | 872.34$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 8c | 529.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 391.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 387.35$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 385.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 21c | 323.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 267.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 204$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 24c | 195$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 181.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 179.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 161.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 148.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 16c | 139.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 135.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 128.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 126.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 116.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 73c | 114.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 113.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 102.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 99.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 27c | 94.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 86.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 80.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 73.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 75c | 72.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d810backed Yes | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 74c | 54.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 54.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 54.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 47.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 41.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 40.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 38.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 31.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 30.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 72c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 74c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.