Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8145ce08b27adc7ae4d5318cdcb664c4e7649438475c89151b5053d9fb68991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 13c | 2,101$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.46 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 1,014$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,010$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 781.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 778.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 3c | 769.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 569.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 504.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed Yes | 4c | 422.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 368.52$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 324.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 311.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 8c | 289.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 6c | 271.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed Yes | 47c | 211.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 15c | 205.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 9c | 205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 192.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 188.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 8c | 182$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 13c | 139.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 13c | 128.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 117.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…ef0dbacked Yes | 29c | 95.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 26c | 76.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 18c | 64.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 30c | 54.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 33c | 54.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 33c | 37.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.