TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c1,117$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.278,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes75c1,006$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.916,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c988.62$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.1910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes25c803.86$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.99617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes28c715$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No78c565.49$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.796845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No43c459.8$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.613,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No77c408.82$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.422,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No13c356.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.216,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c324.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No61c318.6$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.652,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No75c304.45$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.082,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.8728324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No9c280.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.337,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No72c252$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.441,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c244.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.675,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes22c228.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.461,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked No7c225.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0925230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c219$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.114,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes20c202$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.656424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c192.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.174,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes79c175.81$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5925947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes21c168.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.791,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c167.23$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c161.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No24c159.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.394,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No53c151.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.441,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10857150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No72c143$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c131.04$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.434,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No15c126.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.387748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes26c112.92$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5612927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No65c109.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c102$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.489,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7418240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes22c95.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4954735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes12c94.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.331,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No74c90.61$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6781558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No79c87.58$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No72c83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7636150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ac…fce6backed Yes50c80.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.262817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes21c79.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1428742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes17c78.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.181,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee6…07cabacked No77c73.1$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes23c72.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.819345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No69c65.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8534151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No34c62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2477151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c59.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.573,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes24c58.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes22c53.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.813327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes57c52.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.381,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No80c51.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.121,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…6483backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa29c…572abacked Yes28c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41250%6 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes71c44.88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9637465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No80c42.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.843,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1744945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c41.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.62,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes33c39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0216552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed No80c36.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3810554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.775,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No79c34.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2514945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9eb…e3e8backed No79c33.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.588871.6%63 W · 25 L+0.4wins0.00per pick71cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No79c30.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.471,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.449675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6458…f826backed No79c27.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.46875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No73c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7199571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes79c25.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4313544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1313430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No63c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7517020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x034c…5f17backed Yes55c23.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6648…f69abacked No80c15.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.322369.6%16 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick78cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No79c12.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.153,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0de…3b38backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012473.4%91 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.