TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,653 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes1c2,777$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.417,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes4c2,464$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.192,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes31c1,209$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c767.07$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.638,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes22c588.41$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.536930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes23c553.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.743,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No67c421.23$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.932,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c417.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.166,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes15c332.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5734918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No70c233.51$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.915054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes21c218.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7356424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No66c208.39$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.876845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes36c181.08$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.251,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c177.23$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.945,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No71c176.58$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7e…3660backed Yes29c175.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.975328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c170$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No79c165.24$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.245752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c158.47$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.914,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No71c153.97$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2240265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes34c152.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.891,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c151.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.412,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4857150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No71c141.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3332440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No67c136.54$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.142,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c130.4$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.941,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes39c130$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.336624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf865…d810backed Yes17c118.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes33c110.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes20c110$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No68c108.81$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.821,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No61c105.86$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.774,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No66c102.53$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.371,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No60c100.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6716272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2037150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No74c92.37$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4422849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c90.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No66c88.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4919345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes19c86.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4942820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes24c78.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c76.45$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.344,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No66c75.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5312466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.964,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No67c66.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2242366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes38c65.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c60.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.693,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No63c52.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5115850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes27c48.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No68c43.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.764,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes39c43.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes26c43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1113430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No65c41.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.582,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No73c39.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7765353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No64c38.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.914945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes27c37.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1137465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes32c35.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.481,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes37c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8417831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c30.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.633,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No75c30.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5149646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No74c30.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.56,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e0…1c4fbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.838146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No77c29.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9213959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No69c28.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.931,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked No76c26.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3814060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c24.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.012,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No74c23.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0842976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c21.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.021,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No64c21.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7339956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c20.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.284,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.612052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.622454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.024,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No67c17.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9168867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No63c16.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed No76c15.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.789176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No69c14.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6820660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cd…4b4dbacked No78c14.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.161392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick69cpaid+33.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabcc…8ac7backed No78c12.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.851872.2%13 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.