Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb61ae9cf282f306e32ffb3cfaa090c0d149e264fc82b9233b4a9e5f2110b610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,029$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 55c | 724.05$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.05 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 625.04$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 436.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 62c | 427.87$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.89 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 407.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 362.65$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 303.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 56c | 297.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.63 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 225.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 210.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 203.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 44c | 201.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.39 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 38c | 187.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 176.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 57c | 175.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 148.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 148.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 66c | 147.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 42c | 142.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 130.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 41c | 129.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 124.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 113$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 108.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 105.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 103.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 49c | 102.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 101.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…2194backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 99.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 54c | 89.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 85.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1769backed Yes | 41c | 83.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 78.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 40c | 76.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 75.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 74.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 54c | 72.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 49c | 65.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 64.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 62.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 75c | 60.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 60c | 51.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 43c | 51.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 48.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 48.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 60c | 47.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 47.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 49c | 45.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 43.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 52c | 42.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 45c | 40.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 59c | 40.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 53c | 37.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 35.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 34.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 63c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…f00bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 51c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 29.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 28.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 62c | 27.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 42c | 24.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 63c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 18.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 69c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.