Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef68c447071d67251ea8f42c670d2e27e1486cd853c7eece8630f60251adf46d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 1,472$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 1,061$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 634.83$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 566.59$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 29c | 344.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 80c | 342.8$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 321$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 31c | 320.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 310.76$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 262.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 22c | 256.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 24c | 249.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 23c | 247.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 230$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 69c | 208.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 14c | 185.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 181.53$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 9c | 172.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 169.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 169.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 138.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 8c | 136.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 122.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 118.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 29c | 109.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 11c | 108.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 105.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 104.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 11c | 103.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 22c | 101.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…2194backed Yes | 30c | 95.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 90.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 84.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 31c | 81.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 80.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 75.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 72.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 45c | 67.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 17c | 65.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 55.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 54.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 51.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 50.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 50.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 45.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 56c | 38.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 78c | 37.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 35.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…6d5abacked No | 69c | 34.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 71c | 24.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 78c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 17.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b790backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.