Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbef2639c5f6e38d19bcee7626883658b27444ed46f4bde11cf07505005b60479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 0c | 15,035$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 3,147$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 76c | 1,910$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.69 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,705$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.67 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed No | 70c | 1,565$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 70c | 1,127$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.75 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 72c | 777.67$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.52 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 33c | 700$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 71c | 670.1$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 532.26$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 520.1$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 29c | 481.7$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 461.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 453.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 22c | 450$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 44c | 429.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.84 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 354.56$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 339.56$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 326.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 22c | 326.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 317$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 311.38$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 280$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 28c | 271.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 21c | 264.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 29c | 251.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 41c | 242.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 239.27$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 214$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 204.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 25c | 203.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 17c | 201.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 19c | 199.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 188.03$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 80c | 186.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 30c | 181.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 34c | 172.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 23c | 152.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 34c | 151.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 149.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 147.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 49c | 144.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 67c | 142.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 72c | 139.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 26c | 128.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 27c | 113.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 33c | 111.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 24c | 107.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 19c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 99.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 99.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 28c | 98.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 67c | 96.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 40c | 96.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 21c | 94.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 77c | 93.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 17c | 92.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 25c | 91.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 27c | 89.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 28c | 87.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 55c | 86.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 32c | 85.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 70c | 83.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 83.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 78.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 19c | 76.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 75.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 25c | 75.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…5d8ebacked Yes | 53c | 75.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 32c | 73.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 75c | 72.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 71.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 71.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 66.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 21c | 65.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 64.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 62.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 32c | 62.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 60.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 60.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 24c | 59.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 56.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 53.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 53.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.