Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d3df3f6d84ca82dc2adba5b48a3a938ee3fbff2cdbc0e5d9bbcf47bebc6172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,590$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,386$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,999$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 2,068$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 18c | 1,530$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.61 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 860.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 6c | 792.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 702.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 664.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 3c | 594.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 569.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 6c | 541.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 535.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 491.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 486.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 476.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 354.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 324.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 5c | 309.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 6c | 294.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 4c | 282.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 278.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 8c | 276.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 4c | 262.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 11c | 204.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 6c | 203.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…7b4bbacked Yes | 10c | 186.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 19c | 175.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 30c | 155.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 8c | 139.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 10c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 119.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 13c | 118.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 11c | 117.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 16c | 89.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 13c | 86.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…6b47backed Yes | 29c | 68.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cd…8d96backed No | 80c | 31.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.