Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d87a0a120fc67b980e72ec492e4aecd1c628121977e2e3bd979f487af40c654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,564$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 48c | 550.07$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.06 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 57c | 438.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.58 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 426.29$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 401.99$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 364.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 70c | 353.29$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 328.23$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 326.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 221.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 210$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 201$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 32c | 174.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 173.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 165.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 163.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 163.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 154.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 153.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 146.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 142.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 118.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 111$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 110.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 33c | 102.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 12c | 101.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 65c | 100.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 98.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 38c | 96.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 42c | 92.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 92.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 43c | 90.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 44c | 90.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 88.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 34c | 88.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 78.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed No | 63c | 73.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 65.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 49c | 61.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 64c | 58.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 64c | 58.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 35c | 57.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 62c | 51.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 49.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 47.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…593ebacked Yes | 39c | 47.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 46.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 32c | 46.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 34c | 45.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 45.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 41c | 43.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2b…659bbacked Yes | 36c | 38.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 36.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 30c | 36.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 32c | 36.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked Yes | 37c | 35.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 35.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 34.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 58c | 34.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 34.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 33.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 53c | 32.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 32.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 31.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 63c | 31.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 29.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 47c | 25.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 69c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.