TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes3c1,564$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.811,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes48c550.07$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0615027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No57c438.57$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5811652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No66c426.29$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.82,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c401.99$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.495,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c364.12$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No70c353.29$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4715850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No72c328.23$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.261,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c326.3$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.214,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes38c221.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c210$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.844,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c201$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.636,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes32c174.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3676924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No59c173.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.013,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c165.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes38c163.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1554735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No61c163.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.182,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2514725.2%37 W · 110 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c154.08$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes35c153.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.072,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes33c146.39$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.291,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No63c142.91$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.494,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes22c140$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c118.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.339,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No77c111$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes33c110.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes33c102.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2424542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes12c101.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.865349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No65c100.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3417553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353129%9 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No64c98.91$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2057…0629backed Yes38c96.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.864847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes42c92.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0838146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c92.07$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.582,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes43c90.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8321340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes44c90.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes50c88.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x208d…df71backed Yes34c88.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991520%3 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No67c78.46$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.772,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9876…86b4backed No63c73.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.451566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c65.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.524,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes49c61.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.47642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3748919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No64c58.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8118671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e3e…c58bbacked No64c58.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.875064%32 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes37c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3915345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes35c57.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No62c51.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.54447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.542253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes37c49.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.122,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No60c47.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1899961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c84…593ebacked Yes39c47.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes42c46.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.781,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes32c46.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8826256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes32c46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes34c45.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6224531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No66c45.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.451,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes41c43.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8811947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2b…659bbacked Yes36c38.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes32c36.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No75c36.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.952,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes30c36.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes32c36.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.664045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0515…f02bbacked Yes37c35.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.252142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c35.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.956,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes34c34.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No58c34.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5818565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No66c34.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.792,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c33.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.514,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes53c32.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.557949.4%39 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c32.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.512,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No62c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0642160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c31.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No63c31.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6430849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.92,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94712.8%6 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes35c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c29.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.288,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.534,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No63c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6236150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked Yes47c25.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8319255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No69c24.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.641,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No62c24.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No61c21.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No64c21.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.664,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No66c21.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.232,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.