Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ffae5e68facbdaf91c9ebae599e66d87bdf54fad888cb4f30bc1865fc85823a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,457$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 23c | 771.56$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 480.72$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 396.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 25c | 346.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 77c | 326.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 24c | 303.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 6c | 224.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 63c | 210.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 201$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 26c | 199.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 190.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 189.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 173.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 31c | 159.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 159.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 27c | 150.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 149$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 127.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 125.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 67c | 115.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 36c | 96.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 11c | 95.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 68c | 92.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 65c | 85.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 80.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 73.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 70.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 68.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 69c | 64.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 60c | 61.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 60.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 40c | 59.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 26c | 54.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 40c | 53.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 47.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 33.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 33.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 72c | 26.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 73c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.