Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b8511b4561edd9ea74bdb3ed8e40aa8ca1e2eb6e74923fbf912bdec65cb7e20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 10c | 705.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 586.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 569.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 18c | 203.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 192.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 22c | 156.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 12c | 149.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 9c | 133.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 12c | 123.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 21c | 119.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 13c | 105.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 16c | 99.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 18c | 94.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 91.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 19c | 91.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 19c | 91.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 90.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 15c | 89.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 20c | 88.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 21c | 87.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 86.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 21c | 84.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 82.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 14c | 77.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 76.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 23c | 63.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 18c | 57.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 22c | 48.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 80c | 35.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 33.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…d9b5backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 75c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.