Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32e6f9ab67adf80a6440036faac228b20afbc6f889062053b15129b5073e1c65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 0c | 6,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,144$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 17c | 1,050$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed No | 75c | 870.32$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 637.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 2c | 575.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 545.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 4c | 433.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 378.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 329.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 249.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 5c | 232.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 223.42$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 223.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 5c | 221.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 201.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…d7c0backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 182.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 21c | 181.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 153.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 133.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 132.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 28c | 103.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 86.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed No | 80c | 85.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 72.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 69.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 63.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 22c | 48.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 77c | 42.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 38.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc06…bc87backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 80c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 74c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.