TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,492 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes3c3,910$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.572,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c717.12$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.398,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c612.55$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes7c609.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No80c480.45$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.392,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No79c475.79$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.892,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes6c473.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9632440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes13c377.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.519617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes36c345.9$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.061,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c340.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.052,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c270.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes17c267.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8171823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes7c248.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes41c245.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d56…eb97backed Yes5c223.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes7c220.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.373,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes13c214.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c205.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8413430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c199.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No67c179.79$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.772,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No67c176.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.431,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes6c167.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5428742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c166.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.362,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes19c155$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.112853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No61c148.09$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4138243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No70c145.2$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.054,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No59c140$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes18c136.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.233327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes10c123.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes9c120.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c109.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.253,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No77c104.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.256,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes39c103.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2219137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No68c98.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6817553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c94.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes33c81.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No62c80.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.262,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.958641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c72.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.494,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes40c71.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.553,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes38c65.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c63.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.674,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes34c56.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2217831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes32c55.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7823731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c54.4$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.653,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes29c51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7922232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.514233.1%47 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.515334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes31c48.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.872,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No69c44.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.651,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf261…3335backed Yes38c43.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.693839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes37c41.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4615128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e6b…9f9bbacked Yes36c41.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes32c40.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No64c39.34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf051…acd4backed Yes32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No59c36.85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.111,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No66c36.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3317759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No69c36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1631564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No60c35.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1681…bbbebacked No67c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.551573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No70c34.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3115369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No61c33.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.342,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes33c33.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa747…bebcbacked No63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.754463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No70c29.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8857150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes35c29.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2930136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No59c27.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.453557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No60c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7750373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No65c19.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.943369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed No79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7842849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No67c17.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7625877.5%200 W · 58 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc95c…6534backed No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.