TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf73f…ee53backed No18c1,628$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.512,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No35c769.16$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.422,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c676.31$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.43,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes24c598.88$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.3836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No3c575.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c529.75$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.655,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No59c476.29$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.762,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes32c355.66$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes11c333.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.6532440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No12c325.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c311.65$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.994,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No27c307$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.464,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c303.42$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed Yes57c296.87$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3711459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c286.77$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.176,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No36c285.7$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes14c270.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.279617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes69c270.08$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.635349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No4c260.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5747136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes11c258.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8942849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes55c246.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.733,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No27c224.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4421340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes10c223.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No8c217.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1548261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes24c210.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.9645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes11c187.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.81,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes52c170.54$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7242820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c169.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.762,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked No17c149.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.825230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes31c147.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.517649.4%87 W · 89 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No76c145.2$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.554,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No29c141.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5371823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes78c140$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3612941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes71c139.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9813544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes60c132.46$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4616937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes15c125.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.11679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4580…4357backed Yes9c124.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.596520%13 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes16c122.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.123327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes13c113$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5452533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes17c108.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.37240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No29c104.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.724751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes58c103.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7345540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No29c102.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.641,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes47c94.74$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4110447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No42c92.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.672,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes59c91.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes77c87.02$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.751,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes12c86.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4424141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes65c85.19$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.076,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb0…c615backed Yes12c84.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.791942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+47.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No39c83.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8525541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3bd3…af33backed No50c82.31$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.993748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes66c78.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes71c77.06$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.432,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes13c76.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.478641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No20c74.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes64c73.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4738860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed Yes68c72.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2719663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No31c72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3215236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ef…d244backed No20c70.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes78c64.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3723668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No42c58.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.581,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes63c55.16$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes63c46.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0142061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes78c46.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1537465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes71c46.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.452,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes50c42.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.121,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes59c42.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.815345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.818671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No75c38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4215666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c36.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.892,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes71c35.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.271,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked No29c35.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3428742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes43c34.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.68356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes65c30.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.512846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No56c30.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.438146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes62c29.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.954776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7caa…f4efbacked Yes63c27.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-73.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes61c25.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1035063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes71c25.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.32157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes71c25.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes59c22.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.172,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617a…8c79backed No73c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.064360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c7c…dc18backed Yes60c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-81.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed Yes65c20.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.289176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8b5…3f36backed Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b8…ea84backed Yes78c19.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.313557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes56c18.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.32,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No69c15.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes76c15.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.662,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf17b…a916backed Yes78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.