Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7073938d8e9cec09936f30565a599e651db4de820ee0e0cb4e8e468091a4bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,556$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 7c | 2,189$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 4c | 1,797$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,335$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 1c | 1,130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 871.29$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 6c | 741.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 4c | 599.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 487.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 480.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 474.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 4c | 443.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 407$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 402.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 13c | 375.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 10c | 341.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 323.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 8c | 293.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 290.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 10c | 282.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 9c | 237.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 235.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 223.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 6c | 202.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 5c | 200.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 17c | 192.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 15c | 190.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 6c | 178.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 6c | 178.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 8c | 176.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…33aebacked Yes | 7c | 155.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 10c | 150.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 128.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 11c | 115.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 13c | 113.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 15c | 111.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 12c | 94.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 18c | 75.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.