TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,353 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa98…90bbbacked Up73c9,984$7,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,690.327847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bd…a9febacked Down44c7,289$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Up70c6,992$4,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.3893840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Up67c6,403$4,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.317960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Up50c4,538$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.336521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed Down9c3,513$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Down36c3,405$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.7815020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Down2c3,200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.157244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…e2afbacked Down30c3,132$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.2414143.3%61 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9da…4efebacked Down7c2,081$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a57…fda1backed Down50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed Down7c1,714$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1126761.2%41 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Down43c1,637$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.981952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Down5c1,098$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553815.8%6 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Down38c1,074$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.172924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+145.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Up64c1,059$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.12977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+52.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Down23c1,002$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.731,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c68…c9b3backed Down26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…15f9backed Up58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down41c996.59$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8511736.8%43 W · 74 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Down31c901.67$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.247526.7%20 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb09…738dbacked Up55c900$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Up74c887.99$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Down3c850.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7452…0a15backed Down3c827.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd78…837bbacked Up75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down44c666.32$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.847234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b9b…ab53backed Down15c664.57$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82e0…bcfdbacked Down48c645.83$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Down30c615.83$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.523056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Up78c608.97$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.339758.8%57 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Up64c599.99$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2184254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Down33c544.99$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.429264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0045…395dbacked Up58c530$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed Down47c529.57$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da0…523cbacked Down26c496.69$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8eb…87c8backed Down31c420$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed Up63c419.04$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.398459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2e9…684dbacked Down43c405$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa1…d800backed Down27c400$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Up51c372.5$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe105…185bbacked Up57c366$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.382958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Down40c340$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.752646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Down7c327.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.17175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4943…1f6fbacked Down27c312.72$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed Down31c312.38$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d32…e863backed Up56c309.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aac…9603backed Up63c306.36$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.262962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba7e…7308backed Down42c304.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…495dbacked Down12c300.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…3ff6backed Down50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Down30c300$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x741e…9b87backed Down36c299.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…e70dbacked Down15c267$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick16cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Up75c255.75$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc538…c555backed Down25c208.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down10c205.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8421011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Up73c205$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9470…989dbacked Down38c204.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.75825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d66…af0dbacked Up59c201.76$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.631040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1419backed Down43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83a4…5cbdbacked Down22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d4…eed3backed Up74c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Down49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+44.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4fd…1995backed Down51c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b3…3ffebacked Down35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf5…e344backed Down22c199.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1be…7e6cbacked Down12c174.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Down50c170$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f97…96bdbacked Down13c159.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e36cbacked Down39c155.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Up68c145$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…f61ebacked Down43c137$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.44226.2%11 W · 31 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1e7…68e0backed Down36c126.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.36875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+128.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c4b…fcaebacked Up58c119.36$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed Down19c117.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832b…3e20backed Down50c113.36$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde55…a6dabacked Down15c113.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60e…936dbacked Up55c111$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.43641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…5f25backed Up77c111$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Down25c105.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.486129.5%18 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3e…b127backed Up77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b50…a294backed Down50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x281f…8c1dbacked Down46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c12…3d74backed Up62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Down41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0514…f8c6backed Down27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35d2…8ac2backed Down50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-72.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x604f…9137backed Down50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b52…ce00backed Down27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9025…d2ccbacked Down35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf165…d277backed Up78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58c…0a81backed Up73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fd…bc8abacked Up62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd4b…acd1backed Up64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fef…66ecbacked Down46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x737e…37b0backed Up65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5160…80d2backed Up77c61.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Down38c46.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.692532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Up73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.253884.2%32 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.